Experts from Harvard Business School give advice to managers

哈佛商学院的专家给经理人的建议

Most managers can identify the major trends of the day. But in the course of conducting research in a number of industries and working directly with companies, we have discovered that managers often fail to recognize the less obvious but profound ways these trends are influencing consumers' aspirations, attitudes, and behaviors. This is especially true of trends that managers view as peripheral to their core markets.

大多数经理都能分辨出当下的主要潮流。但是在一系列行业中进行研究和直接与各种公司合作的过程中，我们发现经理们往往没能意识到这些潮流正在以并不显著但却意义深远的方式影响着消费者的渴望、态度和行为。对于那些被经理们视为对他们的核心市场来说不怎么沾边的潮流，情况更是如此。

Many ignore trends in their innovation strategies or adopt a wait-and-see approach and let competitors take the lead. At a minimum, such responses mean missed profit opportunities. At the extreme, they can jeopardize a company by ceding to rivals the opportunity to transform the industry. The purpose of this article is twofold: to spur managers to think more expansively about how trends could engender new value propositions in their core markets, and to provide some high-level advice on how to make market research and product development personnel more adept at analyzing and exploiting trends.

许多人在他们的创新战略中会忽视潮流因素，或者采取一种“先等等看”的方式，然后被竞争者占了先机。最轻了说，这样的反应意味着错过盈利的机会。最严重的情况下，这种态度会导致把行业革新的机会让给竞争对手而危害一家公司。本文的目的有两个：驱动经理人去更广泛发散性地思考潮流可以如何在他们的核心市场内创造新的价值主题，并针对如何使市场调查与产品研发人员更加娴熟地分析和利用潮流提供一些高水平的建议。

One strategy, known as 'infuse and augment', is to design a product or service that retains most of the attributes and functions of existing products in the category but adds others that address the needs and desires unleashed by a major trend. A case in point is the Poppy range of handbags, which the firm Coach created in response to the economic downturn of 2008. The Coach brand had been a symbol of opulence and luxury for nearly 70 years, and the most obvious reaction to the downturn would have been to lower prices. However, that would have risked cheapening the brand's image. Instead, they initiated a consumer-research project which revealed that customers were eager to lift themselves and the country out of tough times. Using these insights, Coach launched the lower-priced Poppy handbags, which were in vibrant colors, and looked more youthful and playful than conventional Coach products. Creating the sub-brand allowed Coach to avert an across-the-board price cut. In contrast to the many companies that responded to the recession by cutting prices, Coach saw the new consumer mindset as an opportunity for innovation and renewal.

有一条策略，称为“浸透与扩充”，是设计一项产品或服务，保留了同类现有产品的大部分特质和功能但又添加了一些能够照顾到一场主要潮流所释放的需求和欲望的新特点。有一个案例是手袋中的“玻琵”系列，由蔻驰公司为了应对2008年的经济衰退所创立。蔻驰品牌作为华丽和奢侈的象征已经有近70年了，原本要应对这场衰退，最显而易见的反应会是降价。然而，那样做将冒着品牌形象贬值的风险。于是他们没有这样去做，而是启动了一项消费者调查项目，发现顾客都渴望将自己和整个国家带出这段艰难的时期。利用这样的发现，蔻驰推出了价位较低的玻琵手袋系列，他们有着浓烈明亮的色彩，比传统的蔻驰产品看起来更为年轻和俏皮。创造这个品牌使蔻驰得以避免了全线降价行为。与许多用减价来应对经济衰退的公司不同，蔻驰视这种新的消费者心为一个创新和自我更新的机遇。

A further example of this strategy was supermarket Tesco's response to consumers' growing concerns about the environment. With that in mind, Tesco, one of the world's top five retailers, introduced its Greener Living program, which demonstrates the company's commitment to protecting the environment by involving consumers in ways that produce tangible results. For example, Tesco customers can accumulate points for such activities as reusing bags, recycling cans and printer cartridges, and buying home-insulation materials. Like points earned on regular purchases, these green points can be redeemed for cash. Tesco has not abandoned its traditional retail offerings but augmented its business with these innovations, thereby infusing its value proposition with a green streak.

这种策略的另一个例证是超市Tesco在面临消费者们越来越关注环境问题时所作出的反应。了解到这种情况后，Tesco，这个世界最大的五家零售商之一，推出了它的“更环保生活项目”，以此显示这家公司对于环保的承诺，通过一些能产生明显效果的方式让消费者参与其中。比如，Tesco的顾客可以通过这样一些活动获得积分：反复使用购物袋，回收罐头盒和打印机墨盒，以及购买家居绝缘材料。就像其他常规购物所获得的积分那样，这些环保积分也可以兑换现金。Tesco并没有摒弃其传统的零售供应，而是利用这些创新扩充了自己的业务，从而为其产品注入了环保的价值。

A more radical strategy is 'combine and transcend'. This entails combining aspects of the product's existing value proposition with attributes addressing changes arising from a trend, to create a novel experience - one that may land the (company in an entirely new market space.At first glance, spending resources to incorporate elements of a seemingly irrelevant trend into one's core offerings sounds like it's hardly worthwhile. But consider Nike's move to integrate the digital revolution into its reputation for high-performance athletic footwear. In 2006, they teamed up with technology company Apple to launch Nike+, a digital sports kit comprising a sensor that attaches to the running shoe and a wireless receiver that connects to the user's iPod. By combining Nike's original value proposition for amateur athletes with one for digital consumers, the Nike+ sports kit and web interface moved the company from a focus on athletic apparel to a new plane of engagement with its customers.

一项更为激进的策略是“融合与超越”。这涉及将产品的现有价值定位与能顾及一场潮流中所产生变化的新特征结合起来，共同创造出一种新奇的体验——这种体验也许能将公司带入一个全新的市场空间。乍看起来，耗费资源去将一场看似毫不相关的潮流的元素融入自身的核心产品之中，好像并不值得。但是我们可以看一下耐克公司的行动：将数码革命融入了其自身的高性能运动鞋概念之中。在2006年，他们与科技公司苹果联合推出了“Nike+”，一套数码运动装备，包括一个附加在跑鞋上的传感器和一部连接到用户ipod播放器上的无限接收装置。通过将耐克面向业余运动爱好者的原始价值定位于针对数码产品消费者的服务结合起来，“Nike+”运动装备和网络界面将这家公司从专注于运动服饰的着眼点带向了一个新的吸引其顾客的领域。

A third approach, known as 'counteract and reaffirm', involves developing products or services that stress the values traditionally associated with the category in ways that allow consumers to oppose - or at least temporarily escape from - the aspects of trends they view as undesirable. A product that accomplished this is the ME2, a video game created by Canada's iToys. By reaffirming the toy category's association with physical play, the ME2 counteracted some of the widely perceived negative impacts of digital gaming devices. Like other handheld games, the device featured a host of exciting interactive games, a foil-color LCD screen, and advanced 3D graphics. What set it apart was that it incorporated the traditional physical component of children's play: it contained a pedometer, which tracked and awarded points for physical activity (walking, running, biking, skateboarding, climbing stairs). The child could use the points to enhance various virtual skills needed for the video game. The ME2, introduced in mid- 2008, catered to kids' huge desire to play video games while countering the negatives, such as associations with lack of exercise and obesity.

第三种策略，称为“抵制与重申”，涉及开发这样一些产品或服务，强调的是传统上就与产品序列联系在一起的价值体系，所采用的方式能允许消费者去否定——或者至少是暂时逃离——这场潮流中他们看来不那么吸引人的方面。达成了这一目标的一个产品是ME2，一款由加拿大iToy公司所生产的电子游戏。通过重申这款玩具产品与体育锻炼之间的关联，ME2得以抵制掉数码游戏设备的一些被大众普遍视为消极因素的不利影响。就像其他手持游戏一样，这款设备成仙了一系列激动人心的互动式游戏，配备全色彩液晶显示屏和先进的立体画面。它的与众不同之处在于它还吸收了儿童游戏的传统运动因素：它内置了一台计步器，可以记录并用积分奖励体育运动（散步、跑步、骑自行车、滑滑板、爬楼梯）。孩子可以使用这些积分来提升玩游戏所需的各种虚拟技能。ME2在2008年中面世，既迎合了儿童想玩电子游戏的极大渴望，又解决了一些负面的问题，例如游戏与缺乏运动和肥胖之间的联系。

Once you have gained perspective on how trend-related changes in consumer opinions and behaviors impact on your category, you can determine which of our three innovation strategies to pursue. When your category's basic value proposition continues to be meaningful for consumers influenced by the trend, the infuse-and-augment strategy will allow you to reinvigorate the category. If analysis reveals an increasing disparity between your category and consumers' new focus, your innovations need to transcend the category to integrate the two worlds. Finally, if aspects of the category clash with undesired outcomes of a trend, such as associations with unhealthy lifestyles, there is an opportunity to counteract those changes by reaffirming the core values of your category.

一旦你能获得关于消费者观念和行为中与时尚潮流有关的那些变化会如何影响到你的产品序列的视角，你就能确定该采用我们这三条创新策略中的哪一条了。当你的产品的基本价值定位对于受到潮流影响的消费者来说仍然是有意义的，“浸透与扩充”策略能令你复兴产品系列。如果分析显示出在你的产品与消费者的新关注点之间有了越来越大的差别，那么你的创新行为就需要超越原有的产品范畴，以此来融合两个不同的世界。最后，如果你的产品的某些方面正好撞上了一场潮流中那些不令人满意的地方，例如与不健康的生活方式之间发生了关联，也就有了一场机遇来通过重申你的产品序列的核心价值以对抗这些变化。

Trends - technological, economic, environmental, social, or political - that affect how people perceive the world around them and shape what they expect from products and services present firms with unique opportunities for growth.

潮流——无论是技术的、经济的、环境的、社会的，还是政治的——只要是影响了人们如何看待周围的世界，并塑造了他们对产品和服务的期待的，为公司提供了成长发展的独特机遇。